Christmas Weather Forecast: Showers, Thunderstorms, and a Potential Cyclone

Christmas Weather Forecast: Showers, Thunderstorms, and a Potential Cyclone

Will Christmas Day bring rain or shine across Australia?

Early weather modelling suggests that Christmas Day in Australia will be accompanied by showers, thunderstorms, and a potential cyclone. While Brisbane, Sydney, and Darwin can expect rain, cities like Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, and Hobart are likely to remain dry. However, the main concern for tropical Australia is the future track of ex-Tropical Cyclone Jasper, which remains uncertain. So, how can weather forecasters predict the weather for Christmas Day?

Christmas Weather Forecast: Showers, Thunderstorms, and a Potential Cyclone

Weather forecasting is a complex process with countless variables that contribute to the eventual weather conditions on any given day. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) usually limits its predictions to seven days, as predicting beyond that becomes more challenging due to the multitude of factors involved.

However, advancements in weather modelling and increased computer power have made forecasts more accurate and reliable, especially during the warmer months when weather systems are less mobile and easier to predict.

Although daily forecasts are typically limited to a week, the models used can provide output up to two weeks in advance. To forecast weather ten days out, meteorologists rely on averaging model scenarios to compensate for lower reliability.

The prevailing weather pattern leading up to Christmas is similar to last month, with high pressure systems migrating south of the mainland. This shift in position produces humid easterly winds, bringing wetter than average summer weather from the southeast mainland to southern Queensland.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s weekly outlook for the week leading up to Christmas predicts likely rainfall along the eastern seaboard and the tropics.

On Christmas Day specifically, modelling indicates that the easterly winds and precipitation will continue, increasing the chance of showers and/or thunderstorms in Brisbane, Sydney, and Canberra. Melbourne and Hobart are less likely to see rain, but their forecasts are generally less accurate due to their location in the path of fronts even during summer.

For Perth and Adelaide, easterly winds rarely bring rain, so these cities are expected to have a dry Christmas.

The future track of ex-Tropical Cyclone Jasper remains uncertain, with potential scenarios ranging from a tropical low to a major cyclone. A strike probability map shows the uncertainty surrounding its path and classification.

In Sydney, the warmest start to summer on record is expected to give way to cooler, cloudier, and wetter weather leading up to Christmas, with showers forecasted for Christmas Day.

Melbourne is likely to experience a cool southerly wind in the days leading up to Christmas, with uncertain winds and temperatures on the 25th. Rain is unlikely.

Brisbane can expect a humid onshore airstream, leading to showers and thunderstorms throughout the Christmas period.

Perth will enjoy a sunny and rain-free Christmas, as the city has not received any rain in the past month.

Adelaide has already received triple its average December rain, but the unseasonable rain is expected to cease by Christmas Day.

Canberra may see a few showers and storms in the days before Christmas, but forecasting rain on the 25th is difficult due to the city’s location near the southern edge of east coast storm outbreaks.

Hobart is likely to have a cool lead-up to Christmas, and rain is unlikely on the 25th due to the presence of a high-pressure ridge near the city.

In Darwin’s wet season, showers and storms are a common occurrence, and this Christmas will be no exception. While the movement of ex-Tropical Cyclone Jasper may complicate things, the chance of a direct hit on the city is slim.

Christmas Weather Forecast: Showers, Thunderstorms, and a Potential Cyclone

  • Early weather models indicate showers and thunderstorms for Brisbane, Sydney, and Darwin on Christmas Day
  • Dry weather is expected for Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, and Hobart
  • The future track of ex-Tropical Cyclone Jasper remains uncertain
  • Weather forecasts beyond a week are possible but rely on model scenarios
  • High pressure systems shifting south will bring humid easterly winds and wet weather to southern Queensland

As Christmas approaches, Australians can expect a varied weather forecast across different cities. While showers, thunderstorms, and a potential cyclone may grace some regions, others will enjoy dry and sunny weather. The future track of ex-Tropical Cyclone Jasper remains uncertain, adding an element of unpredictability to the festive season. Stay prepared and make the most of whatever weather comes your way this Christmas!

Christmas Weather Forecast: Showers, Thunderstorms, and a Potential Cyclone

By John Powell

John Powell is a general journalist with a strong focus on national politics. He pursued his studies at the University of Melbourne, where he honed his journalistic skills. With a keen interest in the political landscape, John has become a notable figure in reporting on national politics. His insightful coverage and analysis have garnered attention and respect from both colleagues and readers. With an eye for detail and a dedication to uncovering the truth, John continues to provide informed and balanced reporting on key political issues, making him a valuable asset in the field of journalism.